The scenario may be described as following :--
1-Pakistan int's meddling in Afghanistan and participation in its destruction with USA and UK and Saudi Intelligence from 1978 to 1992 and continual interference till 2001.
RESULT:-- A very strong anti Pakistan sentiment created in Afghan elite consisting of the army,intelligence,civil service ,intellectuals and urban areas.
2-Entry of USA and NATO in Afghanistan.
RESULT:--- A policy adopted to coerce Pakistan by forcing its armed forces to act against tribals/Islamists thus as a result creation of a situation which was taken advantage by other third parties to further heat up the Pakistani civil war.
3-Creation of a democratic government in Pakistan which came into power as a result of secret protocols with USA.
RESULT --- A serious internal policy divide created.
4-FINAL ULTIMATUM TO PAKISTAN:--
Threat of physical attack.
Encouraging secession in Pakistani provinces.
Dividing the Pashtuns and Punjabis.
Surrender or compromise.Gradual reduction of Pakistani states potential,denuclearisation.
Transformation of Pakistan as a US satellite state with US Bases.
Course Alpha:-- Compromise.Pakistan stays intact but totally under US influence and at constant civil war like Algeria.
Course Bravo:-- Pakistan Army picks up the gauntlet.Decides to militarily resist the Americans.Offers bases to China and Russia.Totally stops Afghan Transit Trade while allowing Afghanistan to buy from the tribals alone who are given a preferential status.Defence Treaty with China.Close relations with Iran.
Course Alpha is more likely.Course Bravo requires resolution and strong leadership which is sadly lacking.