Friday, September 26, 2008

A view of things to come

The scenario may be described as following :--

1-Pakistan int's meddling in Afghanistan and participation in its destruction with USA and UK and Saudi Intelligence from 1978 to 1992 and continual interference till 2001.

RESULT:-- A very strong anti Pakistan sentiment created in Afghan elite consisting of the army,intelligence,civil service ,intellectuals and urban areas.

2-Entry of USA and NATO in Afghanistan.

RESULT:--- A policy adopted to coerce Pakistan by forcing its armed forces to act against tribals/Islamists thus as a result creation of a situation which was taken advantage by other third parties to further heat up the Pakistani civil war.

3-Creation of a democratic government in Pakistan which came into power as a result of secret protocols with USA.

RESULT --- A serious internal policy divide created.

4-FINAL ULTIMATUM TO PAKISTAN:--

Threat of physical attack.

Encouraging secession in Pakistani provinces.

Dividing the Pashtuns and Punjabis.

5-SHOWDOWN:---

Surrender or compromise.Gradual reduction of Pakistani states potential,denuclearisation.

Transformation of Pakistan as a US satellite state with US Bases.

6-ANALYSIS:--

Course Alpha:-- Compromise.Pakistan stays intact but totally under US influence and at constant civil war like Algeria.

Course Bravo:-- Pakistan Army picks up the gauntlet.Decides to militarily resist the Americans.Offers bases to China and Russia.Totally stops Afghan Transit Trade while allowing Afghanistan to buy from the tribals alone who are given a preferential status.Defence Treaty with China.Close relations with Iran.

Course Alpha is more likely.Course Bravo requires resolution and strong leadership which is sadly lacking.

9 comments:

Ijaz Gul said...

Course Bravo depends a lot on the political will of Russia and China to challenge this latest US Containment. Pakistan alone cannot do it unless lots of dollars flow in from some OIC country which seems IMPOSSIBLE. It is not practical.

pavocavalry said...

lets see.

the west dominated by violence or threat of violence and the deed will be decided by violence.

the west lost its moral ascendancy long ago in 1948 once it started the cold war.

the issue will be decided by violence because no morality regulates the international system after 1990.

there is a rationality in the madness of suicide blasts.

Zeemax said...

Pavo, Ijaz,

As I understand, Alpha would mean military occupation of FATA by Pakistan with active assistance of US forces. Is that correct?

If so, it would not be compromise. It will be a decision to integrate FATA with Afghanistan and no more a part of Pakistan. Why I think so is because the main problem is the active participation of FATA fighters in anti-Nato operations in Afghanistan, and nothing less than the above can make a serious dent in that participation.

Re Bravo, I think Ijaz has a point. I don't think Russia/China want to make it a tri-polar world just yet, for economic reasons if nothing else.

Couldn't there be a third solution? Actually I don't think there could be one unless Nato were to leave Afghanistan, in which case Taliban will be again in power, which US has categorically said will not be allowed.

In the end, answering the question whether Taliban are a threat to USA or any of the Nato countries is critical. The answer to that will decide whether USA should remain in Afghanistan or not.

Perhaps Pakistan can ask that question, and place it on the world forums for answers. I think it should be easy to prove Taliban cannot be a threat to the occupying forces' on their soil. On Pakistan soil maybe, but not theirs.

What do you think?

pavocavalry said...

course ALPHA is more likely....the pakistani politicians and generals are absolutely hopeless...these are two possibilities and alpha is most likely

Zeemax said...

pavocavalry,

I understand Alpha is more likely, but isn't the 'third' possibility a solution?

You're right these are hopeless people. I think though the matter can be solved by first strategic defiance i.e. non-lethal confrontation by shooting down unmanned intelligence and/or missile-armed drones, accompanied with a huge diplomatic offensive.

Someone has to do it. Otherwise it won't be solved.

pavocavalry said...

ONE NEEDS TO STUDY THE HISTORY OF THESE POTOHARIS IN THE ARMY-ABSOLUTELY HOPELESS PEOPLE

Majumdar said...

There is of course one lacunae in you guys' treatment of Course Alpha. You are discounting the possibility that the Pak-NATO alliance can actually secure a big victory, provided both Pak Army and NATO take the task really seriously. In such a scenario actually the cause of democracy and peace could be much stregnthened.

Yes, if it fails there would be chaos but the chance of Course A succeeding are fair too.

Regards

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