Posted by pavocavalry at 2:54 AM
16 Nov 2003
AGE OF STRATEGIC ANARCHY
While human history has continuously oscillated between order and disorder , peace and war , the post 9/11 may be said to represent the watershed between the age of strategic stability which started from 1945 and a transition to a many decade ,perhaps century long period of strategic anarchy !
War as a sublime activity has witnessed a stark transition from rationality to madness from9/11 ! The Nero at the apex of the whole exercise is Emperor Bush the Second who more than any Al Qaeda terrorist , has made this world , a far more dangerous place for USA , primarily because of lack of knowledge and a myopic world view which is based on a very narrow perception of history and human civilisation ! Alas Bush is a teetotaller and does not have that coup d oeil which distinguished great warlords like Winston Churchill reinforced by many pints of finest beverages of Scotland ! Here we have a scenario of a warlord , who has naieve strategic perception and is manipulated by cheap consumerist aides motivated by business interests or narrow beliefs in Christian resurgence or Zionist supremacy ! Thus the age of strategic uncertainty and anarchy !
If Field Marshal Foch's ideas on strategy are to be applied here , all anti American forces , have a grand strategic opportunity to humble USA at a nominal cost in the entire region between Casablanca in the West till Sakhalin in the East, with additional reinforcement from sabotage missions launched in theentire tract from Los Angeles till United Kingdom ! American interests and American installations are located in such a widespread area that USA with its entire might cannot defend all of its many assets at all times ! Thus the truth in the adage that he who defends everything defends nothing ! Foch's two cardinal principles of strategy applied wisely in this scenario i.e " Economy of Force" and " Denial of freedom of manoeuvre to the enemy" can easily bring USA to a long term strategic grief ! Already some results are evident in many Quixotic Blackhawks reduced to molten metal in the entire deathland between Tikrit and Karbala !
The age of strategic anarchy may thus unfold in the following stages or phases ; i.e (1)Initial attrition of US forces in Iraq,Afghanistan and Korea (2) A period of spilling out of the conflict into new theaters by the USA in search of a centre of gravity like Iran,Syria ,Pakistan,Saudi Arabia.Something like Napoleons attack on Russia or Hitlers Case Blue which envisaged a dual offensive towards Stalingrad and the Caucasian Oilfields (3) A period of intense attrition in the new theaters chosen by USA (4) a period of USA's exhaustion , something close to Clausewitz's concept of culmination point of a great power and beginning of decline of the New Christian Roman Empire of USA (5) A period of exploitation of USA's exhaustion by other major players like Russia,China ,EU etc !
Initial attrition may last from 1 to five years ! Possibly Bush's successor Democratic or Republican may be unable to initiate a policy of disengagement ! The USA is in position of a man holding a wolf by the ears ! It may be difficult to kill this wolf , but it is fatal to leave it ! All that the anti US forces ,open or covert need to do it is to assist the wolf ,create new breeding areas for the wolves , increase their birth rate !
In the second phase of spilling out USA has to suffer greater losses both material and moral ! Greater casualties ! An attack on Iran via Pakistani Baluchistan or via Azerbaijan or via the coastal Persian Gulf ! A Possible denuclearisation of Pakistan ! A crusade against Syria with an American general walking haughtily till the masoulem of Salahuddin Ayubi in his boots and telling the sleeping Lion of Islam like earlier French generals who occupied Syria after 1918; Salahuddin I have come back to avenge the defeat of Crusaders !
Intense attrition wouldtake place in the next third phase , with either USA destroying all its enemies or arriving at its culmination point ! A start of a period of decline , the ebb of the tide that started gaining strength from WW 1 !
The fourth phase would be either USA's victory , perhaps a Pyhrric one or an ignominious withdrawal ! The Barbarians as the USA perceives its Islamic enemies would then regroup and counter attack !
The fifth phase would be open exploitation of USA's exhaustion by China and Russia hopefully with a more resolute leader who drinks a lot of Vodka and has zeal and the killer instinct of a Peter the Great or Stalin !
The whole process of these five stages may vary from anything between 5 years to 100 years ! The stakes are high , the battle field vaster than any other battlefield in human history and the shades too many for the strategists eye to perceive or comprehend !
The present third world war which started with 9/11 has no centre of gravity,no fixed battle lines , it is hundred dimensional,no rules , no morality ,no boundaries and no tangible end in sight !
One thing is clear ! USA's cheap consumerist society has a great deal of military muscle but a pathetic strategic vision ! We salute the new age of Strategic anarchy !