Pavocavalry, September 4, 2008
The US military was accused today of having sent a force of commandos across the border from Afghanistan into Pakistan on a raid in which 20 people were reportedly killed, including women and children.
Both Nato and the separate US-led coalition in Afghanistan denied any knowledge of the pre-dawn attack, which local residents said involved both American and Afghan troops backed by helicopter gunships. But it was immediately seen as both undermining sovereignty and presenting a challenge to the coalition government led by Yousuf Raza Gilani, the object of an unsuccessful assassination in Rawalpindi this morning.
"It is outrageous," Owais Ahmed Ghani, the governor of North West Frontier province, said in a statement on the incursion. "This is a direct assault on the sovereignty of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan expect that the armed forces of Pakistan would rise to defend the sovereignty of the country and give a befitting reply."
This comes from a total amateur who has already by his incompetent handling taken Baluchistan to the brink of secession.Now the same man is in NWFP province in governors seat. All set to create chaos in the NWFP also.
The US air mounted raid, there are no coalition forces in this area was mounted from a forward airbase in Paktika province of Afghanistan near Sharan. There could be multiple aims of this raid. To psychologically harass the Pakistani state.To tell the tribals that the USA can strike at will anywhere in the tribal areas. To spread panic in the area so that any major anti US figure in the area leaves his hideout and changes location and is in the process discovered.
The US attack was logical and natural.They have decided that the centre of gravity of all the trouble is Pakistan.Right or wrong this appears to be the central US perception now.
Seen in this context a major US operation aimed at reducing Pakistan in effectiveness of a small or large dimension may commence in end 2008 and be finalised by mid 2009. This could involve selective surgical strikes, a black and white ultimatum , physical invasion assisted by India, outbreak of war of secession in any of Pakistan's smaller provinces, assassination of key leaders or a leader and finally manipulating things in such a way that martial law is imposed in Pakistan.
The Americans are no longer dealing with the Old Fox Musharraf. The army it is dealing with now is a semi defeated force. Besieged in its own country's western provinces. At war with its people, or at least a substantial albeit effective minority.
In dealing with the Americans I discovered in 1996 and this idea was successively reinforced that at state level they never act at random. Every action, smallest in size has a grand strategic idea. Its time that soldiers and politicians realise this fact and start preparing for the worst to come.