FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE ONGOING US MEDIATION WITH TALIBAN

FIRST IMPRESSION

1-A PLOY TO REDUCE TENSION SO AS TO REDUCE US CASUALTIES BEFORE ELECTIONS.
2-AN ATTEMPT TO DIVIDE THE TALIBAN FROM AL QAEDA

ANALYSIS

1-ANY US RAPPROACHMENT WITH TALIBAN WOULD RESTART THE CIVIL WAR-THE NORTH WOULD SECEDE-RUSSIANS AND IRANIANS WILL BE DOMINANT IN THE NORTH OF AFGHANISTAN.

2-THE SOUTH WOULD BECOME A HAVEN FOR ALL FREEBOOTERS.

3-PAKISTAN WOULD BE SEVERELY DESTABILISED AND INDIA IN TURN WOULD BE AFFECTED.

4-ALL AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN INVESTMENTS MADE IN AFGHANISTAN SINCE 2001 WOULD GO STRAIGHT INTO THE GUTTER

LASTLY TERRORISM WILL RECIEVE A BOOST AND THE CHANCES OF THE US MAINLAND BEING ATTACKED WILL BE MULTIPLIED BY ONE BILLION